The Hurricane Season Forecast 2019 NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) leans toward a near-normal season of  9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which to 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

Hurricane Season Forecast 2019 NOAA

With a 40% chance of occurrence a near normal season is most likely, but NOAA also notes a 30% of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. There are two factors in particular that influenced the outlook this year: sea surface temperatures and an El Niño pattern.

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic favor storm development. The warm waters offer more fuel for developing storms, which would push for an above average season. However, an El Niño does not favor storm development in the Atlantic. El Niño is marked by the warming of waters over the central and East Central Pacific. This would encourage storm development in the Pacific, but hinder development in the Atlantic.

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